Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has placed the odds of an economic contraction over the next two years at about 35%, based on history that suggests it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy enough to cool inflation without causing a U.S. recession.
Jan Hatzius, the organization’s chief economist, projected the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at about 15%.
Economists recently have seen increasing odds of a U.S. recession, with an early April Bloomberg survey placing the odds at 27.5%, up from 20% in their March survey. They expect the consumer price index to average 5.7% in the final three months of the year, up from the previous 4.5% estimate.