The Wisconsin Department of Revenue’s (DOR’s) latest economic forecast finds that strong growth in 2023 suggests tight labor markets will persist into 2024.
The forecast expects a period of slow growth starting by mid-2024 that will bring down inflation to the Fed’s desired range.
In October, U.S. payrolls grew by 150,000 below the monthly average gain of 257,000 over the first half of 2023. The trend in payroll gains has steadily declined since late 2021 and is expected to continue pushing the unemployment rate upwards until it peaks at 4.7% in mid-2025.
Wisconsin employment is expected to grow 1.4% in 2023, 0.4% in 2024 and then stay nearly flat through 2026. The Wisconsin unemployment rate is expected to rise to a peak of 4.1% by mid-2025. See the report.