Respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey, released earlier this month, expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% — above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target — through 2024.
Just a quarter of the business economists and analysts responding to the survey expect the U.S. to fall into recession this year, with fears assuaged by factors such as tumbling inflation and resilient growth.
The combination of tumbling inflation and resilient growth has raised hopes that the Fed can achieve a so-called soft landing: vanquishing inflation without the pain of a recession.
However, a growing share of business forecasters worry that the Fed is keeping rates unnecessarily high, with 21% calling its approach "too restrictive," compared to 14% in August. See more findings.